The introduction of the vaxx clearly looks causal on the world graph. One confounding factor is that different vaxxes have different lethalities.
I have been trying to find the fraction of the world that took mRNA-based vaxxes (as opposed to protein-based or viral vector based) but cannot find this data anywhere.
Great work Ben. Only I would argue that covid deaths made up zero of the excess, leaving 15M excess deaths caused by the response. This statement is true even if 5M people died from covid. Excess deaths is the number of deaths above baseline. Who is to say that all 5M covid deaths shouldn't form part of that Baseline? After all, as far back as history goes people have died from ILI's (influenza like illnesses). The supposed disappearance of the flu doesn't necessarily mean that covid deaths were overcounted. Rather it means covid deaths form part of the normal deaths. The only real difference is that now we use a different classification system than before. Further, since the avg age of those that died from covid was typically about 82 (above life expectancy in most countries), it stands to reason that all those deaths labelled as covid belong in the baseline group, not the excess.
It is deception on the part of the narrative makers to make people think that because "covid" is a new word, that all covid deaths are therefore "new" and so belong in the excess group.
I admit that in many regions graphs of covid deaths follow closely with the graphs of excess deaths. Correlation is not causation. And there is reason to believe that for the sake of speeding up data publishing, some governments simply reported that covid deaths equalled excess deaths (by arbitrarily assigning the covid deaths to be so). Such was openly recommended:
"Of course, if Covid was not novel, it is impossible that it should have caused any excess deaths in 2020. It follows from this sobering conclusion that any and all excess deaths had to have been caused by other factors."
In your plot for worldwide excess mortality based on the data by WHO, excess mortality peaks in May 2021. However about 75% of all excess deaths in May 2021 were in India: `t=read.csv("https://pastebin.com/raw/PVTHyL8V" );100*t2[t2$country=="India","excess.mean"]/sum(t2$excess.mean)`. So if India simply got COVID late like many other lower-income countries, the excess deaths around May 2021 were not necessarily caused by the vaccines.
Excess deaths in India peaked around the same time as PCR positivity rate and COVID deaths, but the daily number of new vaccines only peaked about 4 months later in September 2021: https://i.ibb.co/hKCKL6J/india-excess-mortality-vs-pcr-positivity-rate.png. Around September 2020 and February 2022, there were two other spikes in COVID deaths in India, but both of them also coincided with a spike in percentage of positive PCR tests.
I made this heatmap which shows the monthly excess mortality percent in the dataset by WHO: https://i.ibb.co/wRcyhHw/who-2020-2021-excess-mortality-percent-by-country-heatmap.png. The dataset is interesting because it includes many countries like India that are missing from other sources like OWID and Mortality Watch. In WHO's dataset, India actually accounts for about 5 million out of a total of about 15 million excess deaths.
In Rancourt's article where he claimed that there was no pandemic, he wrote: "Hot spots of sudden surges in all-cause mortality occurred only in specific locations in the Northern-hemisphere Western World, which were synchronous with the March 11, 2020 declaration of a pandemic." However according to WHO's excess mortality data, there were also several Latin American and Asian countries that had over 50% excess mortality during March, April, or May 2020:
So the claim here is that implied COVID excess deaths were just reclassified deaths from usual causes?
Thank you for this work!
The introduction of the vaxx clearly looks causal on the world graph. One confounding factor is that different vaxxes have different lethalities.
I have been trying to find the fraction of the world that took mRNA-based vaxxes (as opposed to protein-based or viral vector based) but cannot find this data anywhere.
Great work Ben. Only I would argue that covid deaths made up zero of the excess, leaving 15M excess deaths caused by the response. This statement is true even if 5M people died from covid. Excess deaths is the number of deaths above baseline. Who is to say that all 5M covid deaths shouldn't form part of that Baseline? After all, as far back as history goes people have died from ILI's (influenza like illnesses). The supposed disappearance of the flu doesn't necessarily mean that covid deaths were overcounted. Rather it means covid deaths form part of the normal deaths. The only real difference is that now we use a different classification system than before. Further, since the avg age of those that died from covid was typically about 82 (above life expectancy in most countries), it stands to reason that all those deaths labelled as covid belong in the baseline group, not the excess.
It is deception on the part of the narrative makers to make people think that because "covid" is a new word, that all covid deaths are therefore "new" and so belong in the excess group.
I admit that in many regions graphs of covid deaths follow closely with the graphs of excess deaths. Correlation is not causation. And there is reason to believe that for the sake of speeding up data publishing, some governments simply reported that covid deaths equalled excess deaths (by arbitrarily assigning the covid deaths to be so). Such was openly recommended:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30933-8/fulltext#coronavirus-linkback-header
And,
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8051305/#b7-ttj-22-2-137
And,
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352827321002810
See these further proofs:
https://pandauncut.substack.com/p/further-alternative-explanations
"Of course, if Covid was not novel, it is impossible that it should have caused any excess deaths in 2020. It follows from this sobering conclusion that any and all excess deaths had to have been caused by other factors."
https://pandauncut.substack.com/p/was-sars-cov-2-entirely-novel-or
See also this lengthy study:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/362427136_COVID-Period_Mass_Vaccination_Campaign_and_Public_Health_Disaster_in_the_USA_From_agestate-resolved_all-cause_mortality_by_time_age-resolved_vaccine_delivery_by_time_and_socio-geo-economic_data
In your plot for worldwide excess mortality based on the data by WHO, excess mortality peaks in May 2021. However about 75% of all excess deaths in May 2021 were in India: `t=read.csv("https://pastebin.com/raw/PVTHyL8V" );100*t2[t2$country=="India","excess.mean"]/sum(t2$excess.mean)`. So if India simply got COVID late like many other lower-income countries, the excess deaths around May 2021 were not necessarily caused by the vaccines.
Excess deaths in India peaked around the same time as PCR positivity rate and COVID deaths, but the daily number of new vaccines only peaked about 4 months later in September 2021: https://i.ibb.co/hKCKL6J/india-excess-mortality-vs-pcr-positivity-rate.png. Around September 2020 and February 2022, there were two other spikes in COVID deaths in India, but both of them also coincided with a spike in percentage of positive PCR tests.
I made this heatmap which shows the monthly excess mortality percent in the dataset by WHO: https://i.ibb.co/wRcyhHw/who-2020-2021-excess-mortality-percent-by-country-heatmap.png. The dataset is interesting because it includes many countries like India that are missing from other sources like OWID and Mortality Watch. In WHO's dataset, India actually accounts for about 5 million out of a total of about 15 million excess deaths.
In Rancourt's article where he claimed that there was no pandemic, he wrote: "Hot spots of sudden surges in all-cause mortality occurred only in specific locations in the Northern-hemisphere Western World, which were synchronous with the March 11, 2020 declaration of a pandemic." However according to WHO's excess mortality data, there were also several Latin American and Asian countries that had over 50% excess mortality during March, April, or May 2020:
> t=read.csv("https://pastebin.com/raw/PVTHyL8V")
> t2=t[t$year==2020&t$month>=3&t$month<=5,]
> t2$excess=100*t2$excess.mean/t2$expected.mean
> t2=t2[order(-t2$excess),]
> t2=t2[!duplicated(t2$country),]
> t2=t2[t2$excess>=50,]
> writeLines(paste(round(t2$excess),t2$country,month.name[t2$month],sep=","))
222,Ecuador,April
170,Nicaragua,May
138,San Marino,March
131,Andorra,April
128,Kuwait,May
128,Peru,May
120,United Arab Emirates,May
94,Tajikistan,May
87,The United Kingdom,April
79,Spain,April
66,Belgium,April
58,Mexico,May
53,Italy,March